In a recent piece for online magazine Modern Diplomacy, “A Deal Doomed to Fail? The Fragile Prospects of a New Nuclear Agreement,” SCOOP PhD researcher Mazlum Özkan analyses what is driving current negotiations between the US and Iran for a new nuclear treaty, when it seems likely that any such agreement will fail. Are the talks really aimed at a sustained peace between the two countries, he asks, “or merely a calculated pause in an ongoing confrontation?”.
In his piece, Mazlum situates the current negotiations within the context of America and Iran’s mutual distrust of each other, and the bad faith which stymies any attempt to make a deal. Furthermore, he argues that if there is to be another nuclear agreement between the two countries within Trump’s term, it is likely to be weak and of a short duration. Both sides seem to know this. If so, what’s the point of trying to strike a deal? “The answer lies more in appearances than in substance,” Mazlum writes: Trump gets to boost his image, while Iran can “appear open to diplomacy while standing firm on core issues.”
Read Mazlum’s analysis of the negotiations here.
